Olivia Chow’s commanding lead in Toronto mayoral polls has slipped, setting up a potential battle between resilient Rob Ford and consensus builder John Tory, according to a new Forum Research survey.“This race is up for grabs,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said in an interview Wednesday. “There is no front-runner now. It’s ‘who has the best vision for Toronto?’ This could be a real battle for the ages.”
Chow, the Trinity-Spadina NDP MP, still wins all of the various two-way, three-way and four-way 2014 mayoral matchups that Forum put to 1,239 Torontonians in an automated phone survey Tuesday.
But Chow’s margin in a head-to-head match has slipped to 53 per cent to Mayor Ford’s 42 per cent support, with 5 per cent undecided.
That’s down from her 60 per cent support in mid-March to Ford’s 39 per cent, with 7 per cent undecided.
The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
The Oct. 27, 2014, election campaign does not officially start until Jan. 1, but Ford constantly speaks of his re-election bid as other potential candidates are starting to draft campaign teams and fundraisers.
Public excitement over Chow’s potential candidacy — she says she’s only mulling a run — appears to have faded a bit, said Forum president Lorne Bozinoff. Ford, meanwhile, benefited from a lull in the crack video scandal that has failed to shake his hardcore support.
John Tory, the radio host, former Ontario PC leader and failed 2003 mayoral candidate now gauging support for a 2014 run, would handily beat Ford in a head-to-head contest 52 per cent to 35 per cent, the poll suggests.
Putting all three heavyweights in the ring, if the election were held now, would see Chow win with 40 per cent, trailed by Ford at 30 per cent and 25 per cent for Tory.
“When Tory is in the race, it’s a real toss-up,” Bozinoff said. “Any of them could win.
“All three are veteran politicians with a certain amount of baggage. This would be a tough, tough campaign — very aggressive with no stone left unturned.”
Tory’s reputation as a left-leaning conservative with cross-party appeal could help him steal support from both rivals, Bozinoff said. His support had faded since he opted to sit out the 2010 campaign.
“Tory can promise the concern for taxpayers without the theatrics we have seen with Ford,” Bozinoff said, adding that, to clinch re-election, Ford needs an extra 10 to 15 per cent support on top of his “Ford Nation” diehards.
The Star recently reported that TTC chair Karen Stintz, the fiscally conservative Eglinton-Lawrence councillor who split with Ford over transit expansion, has begun to build a campaign team for her 2014 election bid.
Stintz polled last in the various matchups proposed by Forum. They range from 23 per cent support in a three-way race that would have Ford and Tory virtually tied, at 33 per cent and 32 respectively, to only 9 per cent in a four-way race led by Chow with 36 per cent, Ford 32 per cent and Tory 19 per cent.
“Stintz at the moment is a tier-2 candidate while the other three are all tier-1,” Bozinoff said. “Many voters consider her, I think, a downtown candidate, not a suburbanite. I don’t think she connects with Ford Nation. She’s just not from their ’hood.”
The poll also included combinations with public works chair Denzil Minnan-Wong (Ward 34, Don Valley East).
Minnan-Wong, who was considering a run for mayor if Ford’s conflict of interest case thrust the city into a mayoral byelection, polled well behind the others, with support as low as 2 per cent.
Minnan-Wong has privately urged Tory to run for mayor, sources say, and would likely be a key figure in his 2014 campaign team. Reported by Toronto Star 5 days ago.