Suddenly, the race to replace Toronto Mayor Rob Ford is becoming crowded — and that’s just how Ford wants it.Indeed, Ford is dreaming of an election filled with challengers for his job, regardless of whether they are from the left or the right, from downtown or the suburbs.
That’s because Ford’s chances of winning re-election jump each time a serious contender indicates they might jump into the October 2014 mayoral contest.
Simply, the more credible candidates there are in the race, the more the anti-Ford vote will be splintered. The ensuing result could be a narrow victory for Ford based on his being able to retain the backing of his hard-core Ford Nation supporters, who represent some 30 per cent of voters.
The field became a bit more crowded this week when John Tory, the popular radio talk-show host and former Ontario Conservative party leader, said he was “thinking” about entering the race.
NDP MP Olivia Chow and TTC chair Karen Stintz are already actively building their campaign teams.
And city councillors Adam Vaughan, Shelley Carroll and Denzil Minnan-Wong, as well as 2010 mayoral candidate Sarah Thomson, are also assessing their odds and whether they can raise enough money to operate a major campaign.
That makes at least seven possible serious opponents for Ford. Each brings their own strengths to the race, but none would make a significant dint in Ford’s base of support.
In 2010, Ford ran against five main challengers: George Smitherman, Joe Pantalone, Rocco Rossi, Giorgio Mammoliti and Thomson. Three of them — Rossi, Thomson and Mammoliti — dropped out before election day.
For Ford, the best scenario in 2014 is for his opponents to splinter votes on both the left and the right.
On the left are Chow, Vaughan and Carroll. On the right are Stintz, Tory and Minnan-Wong. All of them would be draining votes not from Ford but from each other.
To date, Chow is considered the front-runner. In a one-on-one race, Ford doesn’t have a chance against Chow, according to a Forum Research poll conducted in late May. The survey indicated Chow would get 56 per cent support and Ford 36 per cent. Chow also easily led in three-way contests with Ford and Tory as well as against Stintz and Ford.
But Chow has many detractors, including some city councillors who at first blush might be seen as her natural supporters.
Huge egos are at play here, though, with some rumoured contenders believing Chow’s big early lead will evaporate, just as it did for former mayor Barbara Hall in the 2003 election won by David Miller, who trailed badly in the first polls.
Chow’s critics suggest her strong NDP roots and downtown background will be negatives — not strengths — in an election where fiscal restraint and suburban transit will be major issues.
Despite his comment that he’s “thinking about” entering, Tory likely won’t jump in. He’s been battered in past years by a series of electoral losses and doesn’t want to fight another long campaign with little guarantee of winning.
If both Stintz and Tory are in the race, they would split the centre-right vote that favours fiscal restraint but can’t stomach Ford. That constituency might be a sizeable part of the electorate, but not enough to make up for Ford’s seemingly unshakable base, many of whom likely would vote for him even if he ended up in jail for some reason.
For the other hopefuls, they must decide if they can overcome the advantage that Ford, Chow and Tory have with their high public profile.
As Rocco Rossi learned in his well-fought but failed 2010 mayoral bid, name recognition is a candidate’s biggest challenge. “Forget the policy, forget the meetings with movers and shakers high up in bank towers,” a Rossi organizer said this week. “If people on the front porch don’t know you, they won’t vote for you. You can’t buy name recognition.”
In the weeks ahead, every hopeful in this growing mayoral field will be testing their support at barbecues and festivals across the city.
Rob Ford will spend the summer on the campaign trail, too — and hoping the race becomes even more crowded.
Bob Hepburn’s column appears Thursday. *bhepburn@thestar.ca * Reported by Toronto Star 5 days ago.